Factors of Transference

Earnings with the tag I 'announce'

The first flu pandemic in 40 years

The organization thinks that the spread of the H1N1 is already unstoppable and world. - The increase of the level of alert obeys the extension of the virus and not a major gravity

BENITO'S EMILIO - Madrid - 6/11/2009

The viruses know neither about protocols nor about fears before the public opinion, and in the end the H1N1 that causes the called new flu has been imposed. With an almost world extension (this Asian has already identified in at least 29 European countries, 3 North Americans, 6 of the Middle East, 11 of, 2 of Oceania, 16 in Central America and the Caribbean Sea and 6 of South America), the epidemic of new flu is already, officially, a pandemic. Africa is missing: at the moment, only there are eight cases confirmed in Egypt, but sources of the WHO admit that there are suspects in another six countries, from Eritrea to South Africa happening for Namibia, Cabo Verde, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gambia. Falta África: de momento, sólo hay ocho casos confirmados en Egipto, pero fuentes de la OMS admiten que hay sospechosos en otros seis países, desde Eritrea a Sudáfrica pasando por Namibia, Cabo Verde, República Democrática del Congo y Gambia.

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She was the proper director of the World Organization of the Health (WHO), Margaret Chan, the manager of doing the announcement of the increase of the level of alert. “The virus is transmitted easily between persons and between countries. That's why I have decided to raise the alert level”, said Chan. The decision has taken after warning to the countries with more cases, included Spain, and of a preparatory meeting with journalists. The target of this one was to make clear that the increase of the phase of alert answers to extension questions of the virus and of his facility of transmission, not because it should have worsened the diagnosis. Por eso he decidido elevar el nivel de alerta”, dijo Chan. La decisión se ha tomado después de avisar a los países con más casos, España incluida, y de una reunión preparatoria con periodistas. El objetivo de ésta era dejar claro que el aumento de la fase de alerta responde a cuestiones de extensión del virus y de su facilidad de transmisión, no porque haya empeorado el diagnóstico.

It is clear that, immediately afterwards, the experts warn that this situation can change. This is what there always do all the viruses of the flu, included those that cause the sprouts of every winter (the called seasonal flu). And nobody is capable of foreseeing where this virus is going to do it. The possibilities go since it keeps on causing a light illness until it brakes his expansion rhythm again or that he acquires typical of the H5N1 (the virus that causes the avian flu) and become much more mortal. Y nadie es capaz de prever hacia dónde lo va a hacer este virus. Las posibilidades van desde que siga causando una enfermedad leve hasta que vuelva a frenar su ritmo de expansión o que adquiera características del H5N1 (el virus que causa la gripe aviar) y se vuelva mucho más mortal.

At the moment, the last information is that in the world he has confirmed almost 29.000 cases (this number includes all the diagnoses since at the end of April it was detected to the illness, for what the majority they are already out of danger, although also 144 deceased register). This number is only that of the most serious patients or those who have gone to a medical service where they have bothered to do the corresponding analyses to him. That's why the surest thing is that, really, the number of infected, included those who have spent an illness so light that they have not gone to the doctor or those who have become infected but they have not even found out, is very top. In the USA the Centers of Control of Illnesses (the scientific organization of reference) he calculates that for every diagnosis be another 3.000 affected ones that stay without registering. This proportion is conservative (it is a top country where the alerts jumped from the beginning), for what to venture that there have already been 90 millions of infected does not look like an exaggeration. Por eso lo más seguro es que, en verdad, la cifra de infectados, incluidos los que han pasado una enfermedad tan leve que no han ido al médico o los que se han infectado pero ni se han enterado, sea muy superior. En EE UU los Centros de Control de Enfermedades (el organismo científico de referencia) calcula que por cada diagnóstico hay otros 3.000 afectados que quedan sin registrar. Esta proporción es conservadora (es un país puntero donde las alertas saltaron desde el principio), por lo que aventurar que ya ha habido 90 millones de infectados no parece una exageración.

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This is the first pandemic of flu that declares itself in 40 years. The previous one started in Hong Kong in 1967, and was paid by half a million dead persons. The experts believe that the new flu will continue this model and not that of the most famous epidemic, that of the Spanish flu of 1918, to which they assume between 25 million and 50 million deaths. The cause is not only the genetics of the virus, but the tremendous change of the sanitary circumstances. Then the world had just gone out of the World War I, and, especially, the antibiotics did not exist. Now the circumstances are different. In this aspect, to better. Los expertos creen que la nueva gripe seguirá este modelo y no el de la epidemia más famosa, la de la gripe española de 1918, a la que se atribuyen entre 25 millones y 50 millones de fallecimientos. La causa no es sólo la genética del virus, sino el tremendo cambio de las circunstancias sanitarias. Entonces el mundo acababa de salir de la I Guerra Mundial, y, sobre todo, no existían los antibióticos. Ahora las circunstancias son distintas. En este aspecto, a mejor.

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Although the change also has his disadvantages. “Pandemic means an illness that propagates quickly”, remembered Chan. That half a century ago was meaning that it was late from six until nine months in crossing the planet, because most of the transport were done in ship or in train. Now, with the heyday of the air navigation, 24 hours are enough so that a virus turns to the world, told the director of the WHO. Eso hace medio siglo quería decir que tardaba de seis a nueve meses en cruzar el planeta, porque la mayoría del transporte se hacía en barco o en tren. Ahora, con el auge de la navegación aérea, bastan 24 horas para que un virus dé la vuelta al mundo, explicó la directora de la OMS.

The change of the category of the level of alert has different readings depending on the country. In a general way it is an announcement so that efforts do not wear out in trying to stop the virus (it is supposed that it is already everywhere). Now the work must be, especially, attend to the affected ones. “To do analysis and diagnoses consumes time and money”, warned Chan, who believes that, that's why the countries will have to allow centring on this aspect, because there runs the risk that, for giving one more number detail, there get lost funds that they should use in the treatment of the patients, which must be the next priority. Ahora el trabajo debe ser, sobre todo, atender a los afectados. “Hacer análisis y diagnósticos consume tiempo y dinero”, advirtió Chan, quien cree que, por eso, los países deberán dejar de centrarse en este aspecto, porque se corre el riesgo de que, por dar una cifra más detalle, se pierdan fondos que deberían usarse en el tratamiento de los enfermos, que debe ser la próxima prioridad.

The protocols of the WHO (and the Spanish preparation plan before a pandemic done following the international guidelines) stipulate the possibility of asking the patients that aíslen - "voluntarily", it stresses the Spanish document - in his houses or in sanitary centers, which should close school centers or other places of big agglomerations. On the other hand he considers uselessly to restrict the trips (he has no sense to prevent the arrival of anything that is already inside) or, in this case, the commerce of pork (that the genetic material of the virus corresponds to that of the porcine flu it does not mean that these animals transmit the illness).

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Since there has said several times the adviser of Chan - and habitual spokesman of to WHO in case of the new flu - Keiji Fukuda, “there is no pandemic model, but several”. Because apart from the number of cases, it will be necessary to bear in mind the existence of more vulnerable groups of population and the aptitude of the systems of health to attend to them. For example, this virus seems that it affects more normal thing to young persons (there are the cases of the schools of Madrid or of the barracks of Hole of Manzanares), what is an advantage because they are the stronger people and with less underlying illnesses that could give complications. On the other hand, if the pathogenic one they confirm to themselves the African cases it would have to his scope groups of population especially delicate, like the inmunodeprimidos because they have the VIH, what can do that, although the virus does not become more dangerous in itself, his effects are much more devastating. In this sense, Chan remembered that today 85 % of the chronic illnesses (he quoted the diabetes, the obesity, the cardiovascular, respiratory ones and the asthma as factors of risk) happens in “countries of average and low income”. This is one more cause of worry of the WHO. “Till now the cases of flu have happened in countries with relatively good health systems”, said Chan. A little that does not happen in most of those of the south, especially of Africa. Por ejemplo, este virus parece que afecta más de lo normal a personas jóvenes (ahí están los casos de los colegios de Madrid o del cuartel de Hoyo de Manzanares), lo que es una ventaja porque es gente más fuerte y con menos enfermedades subyacentes que puedan dar complicaciones. Por otro lado, si se confirman los casos africanos el patógeno tendría a su alcance a grupos de población especialmente delicados, como los inmunodeprimidos porque tienen el VIH, lo que puede hacer que, aunque el virus no se vuelva más peligroso en sí mismo, sus efectos sean mucho más devastadores. En este sentido, Chan recordó que hoy día el 85% de las enfermedades crónicas (citó la diabetes, la obesidad, las cardiovasculares, respiratorias y el asma como factores de riesgo) se da en “países de ingresos medios y bajos”. Esto es una causa más de preocupación de la OMS. “Hasta ahora los casos de gripe se han dado en países con sistemas de salud relativamente buenos”, dijo Chan. Algo que no se da en la mayoría de los del sur, sobre todo de África.

In the North hemisphere, the worst thing it is not waited up to the next winter. Unless the virus ultraviolet property has acquired a piece of news - and not patrolling - the summer radiations must deactivate it largely. Also, from 2003 the countries have accumulated anti-flu. And they have another advantage: for when the next flu period comes, in autumn, already there will be ready vaccines. This is not going to happen with the countries of the south, because, as any more hurry in that the human beings are, the process of making a new immunization has a few steps that cannot hasten. Además, desde 2003 los países han acumulado antigripales. Y tienen otra ventaja: para cuando llegue la próxima temporada de gripe, en otoño, ya habrá vacunas listas. Esto no va a suceder con los países del sur, porque, por más prisa que tengan los humanos, el proceso de fabricar una nueva inmunización tiene unos pasos que no se pueden acelerar.

The global expassion of the flu affects to 74 countries. This globalization of the illness is what it takes to the WHO to raise the alert. According to the last balance of this organism, the cases of infected by the virus H1N1 already promote 27.737. After the appearance of the sprout, at the end of April, 141 deceased have taken place. Según el último balance de este organismo, los casos de infectados por el virus H1N1 ascienden ya a 27.737. Tras la aparición del brote, a finales de abril, se han producido 141 fallecidos.

The United States overcomes 13.000 cases, Mexico approaches the 6.000, Canada has more than registered 2.000 and Australia has already overcome the thousand. Spain meets between 8 countries more cases of new flu, almost 300. Japan, the United Kingdom and Chile are other countries with more number of affected. Japón, Reino Unido y Chile son los otros países con más número de afectados.

“The virus keeps on extending for the world, and the activity of the same one is increasing in different countries. We are increasingly nearly one pandemic situation, but the WHO is working hard to prepare to the countries, to the people”, according to the attached general manager, Keiji Fukuda.

“We want that it is understood very well that if we declare 6 of pandemic the phase, that means that the virus spreads and that there are stable contagions in communities in countries of different regions”, has pointed out Fukuda, who has clarified that “that does not mean that the virus has become more serious, that the illness is severer or that the mortality valuation has increased”.